Strategy

Wiki · 02 Advanced

One line to remember: every pitch decide “swing or lay off” first; use skills by situation; the two-option call only shows up after contact. The sections below follow the actual order of one plate appearance, and every claim comes with numbers you can re-check.

1. One Plate Appearance, Step by Step

  1. The defense picks a gear: before each half-inning the defense taps one of five “pitch dice” within the time limit; every batter in that half-inning uses it, and it is re-picked after the sides change.
  2. “Swing / lay off” every pitch: the highest-frequency decision in the game — section 2 below.
  3. Roll the hit die after contact: only “swing” without a whiff is contact; you then roll the hit die of that pitch type — OUT / FOUL / Single / Choose.
  4. The occasional two-option face: on the mystery face you pick “take the 1B” or “roll the second die” (section 4).
  5. The plate appearance ends: strikeout (3 strikes) / walk (4 balls) / out / on base; 3 outs change the sides.
Why start here: newcomers often treat “roll a die → two-option” as the main loop, but the hit die and the two-option face appear in only about one in five plate appearances (about 18.1% with the Balanced gear and swinging everything). What really drives offence is the swing/lay-off call you make every single pitch.

2. The Core Call: “Swing” or “Lay Off” Every Pitch

Default: swing every pitch. With the Balanced gear (the default), swinging everything + taking the 1B gives roughly a 48.7% hit rate for the whole plate appearance, and any extra-base hit can only come from swinging; “lay off” never produces contact — it only stacks balls toward a walk (with the Balanced gear, laying off every pitch walks 34.4% of the time and strikes out the other 65.6%).

Two hard rules (they apply to every approach): always swing at 2 strikes — laying off carries the same strikeout risk while swinging keeps the chance of contact; always lay off with 3 balls and the bases loaded — the walk forces in a run.

But there is no global optimum: pick by the opponent's gear

The opponent's gear can be read: ① the pitch face echoed under every result; ② the opponent's swing/lay-off habits this game; ③ against an AI it will adapt to your habits in return. The trade-off (numbers = “lay off every pitch” vs “swing every pitch”, 1000 games per cell in bot self-play):

Opponent gearLaying off everythingAdaptive to the gearAdvice
Mostly balls bbb100.0%100.0%Lay off — force the walk
Ball-heavy bb96.9%79.3%Lay off more
Balanced bs (default)3.0%45.2%Just swing
Strike-heavy ss0.1%48.0%Swing
Mostly strikes sss0.0%52.3%Swing — never wait
One line: if you cannot read the gear, swing everything; only switch to laying off once you are sure the opponent is ball-heavy. Do not reverse the order — a default “lay off” player loses to a strike-heavy pitcher (0.1% ~ 0.0%).

Hit rate by opponent gear (swing everything + take the 1B)

Balanced 48.7% · Strike-heavy 54.7% · Mostly strikes 58.8% · Ball-heavy 40.4% · Mostly balls 36.9%; in single-player (gears weighted Strike-heavy 30% · Balanced 50% · Ball-heavy 20%) about 48.9%. Strikeout rate (counting a foul as a strike): Balanced 20.1% / Ball-heavy 32.4% / Mostly balls 38.8% / Strike-heavy 11.4% / Mostly strikes 5.5%.

3. Pitcher Gears (Defensive View)

The five pitch dice change the per-pitch contact chance and the chance that laying off is correct (the more ball-heavy, the harder to hit and the easier to read):

GearSwing — contactLay off — correctWhat it buys
Mostly balls bbb38.3%83.3%Bait swings and misses · double-edged (gives walks)
Ball-heavy bb43.3%66.7%Punish wild swings
Balanced bs (default)53.3%50.0%Neutral and safe
Strike-heavy ss63.3%33.3%Punish waiting
Mostly strikes sss73.3%16.7%Extreme strikeouts

The “lay off is correct” rate does not depend on the whiff rate (it is the number of ball-family faces ÷ 6); the swing contact rate is the whiff-rate-weighted average over the five pitch types (dead-center 10% · strike 20% · nasty strike 50% · ball 40% · wide 80%). So swinging and laying off are not zero-sum: with the Balanced gear, 53.3% + 50.0% = 103.3%.

Which gear to pick

4. After Contact: the Two-Option Face (Occasional)

When the hit die lands on the mystery face you choose take the 1B (an immediate single, safe) or roll the second die (another roll — extra bases, or a double play).

Second-die faceWeightResult
DP double play1Batter + the runner closest to home are out (before 2 outs); after 2 outs only the batter is out
BB walk1Batter to first, runners advance one base
2B double2Batter to second, runners advance two bases
3B triple1Batter to third, runners advance three bases
HR home run1All runners + the batter score, bases cleared

Odds: DP / BB / 3B / HR are 1 face in 6 each and 2B is 2 faces in 6 — only 1 in 6 is a double play; the other 5 in 6 are a hit or a walk.

Comparing the two options (Balanced gear)

ChoiceBatHit rateOut rateWalk rateExpected bases
Take the 1BNo48.7%51.3%00.487
Take the 1BYes48.7%51.3%00.974
Roll the second dieNo42.7%54.3%3.0%0.668
Roll the second dieYes42.7%54.3%3.0%0.974

Which to pick: by “outs + base state”

OutsSituationPickReason (expected-run gap in brackets)
0all 8 statesTake the 1BKeeping the plate appearance alive is worth the most (gap 0.04 ~ 0.30)
1runner on third (third / first+third / second+third)Take the 1BThe runner on third scores and the double play is only a single out (gap 0.04 ~ 0.17)
1the rest (empty / first / second / first+second / loaded)Roll the second dieExtra-base value is higher — but only by 0.006 ~ 0.17 runs, a thin edge; taking the 1B is fine too
2runner on third onlyTake the 1BScores him for sure (gap 0.04)
2the other 7 statesRoll the second dieAfter 2 outs the double play only retires the batter, so the extra-base upside stays (gap 0.13 ~ 0.61)
One line: with 0 outs always take the 1B; with 1 out check whether third base is occupied; with 2 outs always roll the second die — the only exception is “runner on third only”. ⚠️ Common myth: “with 2 outs play it safe to avoid the double play” — after 2 outs a double play only counts the batter, so there is no extra penalty and 2 outs is actually the spot to be aggressive.

5. Six Skills: Priority and Timing

PrioritySkillWhen to useNotes
1Bat (passive)Whenever you have one — every hit upgrades one base (1B→2B→3B→HR)Doubles expected bases (0.487 → 0.974)
2Steal (active)Runner on first, second empty, before 2 outs66.7% to second; only a failure adds an out
3Sac (active)Runner on third, before 2 outs66.7% to drive in a run; the batter is out either way
4Mist (active)0 outs with runners on3/6 advance runners, 2/6 nothing (still uses the plate appearance), 1/6 double play
5Hack (active)Well behind with runners on1/6 home run, 1/6 triple, 4/6 outs
6Cmd (active)When the half-inning allowance is down to its last slot and another skill is still usable50% to reset the allowance (a free 3 uses)

By base state

StateOrderIdea
Runner on firstSteal > Sac > MistMove the runner into scoring position first
Runner on secondSac > take the 1B > MistSacrifice him to third (much better scoring odds)
Runner on thirdSac > Mist > take the 1B > HackSac scores him 66.7% of the time
Bases loadedTake the 1B > HackThe 1B forces a run in; but with 2 outs and the bases loaded, rolling the second die is better (section 4)

Combos that work

6. Mode Notes

Challenge (single-player)

Duel (vs human / vs AI)

7. Quick Reference

Two-Option Decision Tree

Rolled Choose | +-- Outs = 0? --> Take the 1B (always) | +-- Outs = 1? | | | +-- Runner on third? --> Take the 1B (drives him home) | | | +-- Otherwise --> Roll the second die (thin edge; conservative is fine) | +-- Outs = 2? | +-- Runner on third only? --> Take the 1B (scores him for sure) | +-- Otherwise --> Roll the second die (DP is only a single out now)

Skill Timing Decision Tree

Half-inning starts | +-- Have a Bat? --> Equip it (passive, always on) | +-- Allowance down to its last slot and another skill usable? --> Cmd (success resets the allowance) | +-- Plate appearance not started? | | | +-- Runner on third (before 2 outs) --> Sac (66.7% scores; batter is out either way) | | | +-- 0 outs with runners on --> Mist (3/6 advance, one face moves 2 bases) | | | +-- Runner on first, second empty (before 2 outs) --> Steal (to second, no out) | | | +-- Bases empty and far behind --> Hack (swing for extra bases, 2/3 chance of an out) | +-- Plate appearance in progress? | +-- Runner on first, second empty? --> Have Steal? --> Use it (the only active skill available)

Odds at a Glance

EventOdds
Plate-appearance hit rate (swing all + take the 1B · Balanced)48.7%
Plate-appearance hit rate (single-player weighted gears)48.9%
Strikeout rate (swing all · Balanced, fouls counted as strikes)20.1%
Walk rate (lay off all · Balanced)34.4%
Two-option face frequency (swing all · Balanced)about 18.1%
Steal success / runner out on failure66.7% / 33.3%
Sac success (batter out either way)66.7%
Hack: hit / out33.3% / 66.7%
Cmd success (resets the half-inning allowance)50.0%
Mist: advance / nothing (eats the plate appearance) / double play3/6 · 2/6 · 1/6 (only with 0 outs)

Appendix: Self-play Reference Data (for context only)

Produced by an offline bot-vs-bot harness (1000~2000 games per cell, 1 game = 9 innings; re-run 2026-09-27 at the current whiff rates). It compares relative strength and does not equal a human win rate; the dice faces and skill semantics were checked line by line against the live engine.

Using more skills wins (four tiers, round robin)

Skill tierAggregate win rate
Use freely (Bat / Steal / Sac + Mist / Hack / Cmd)52.5%
Only Bat / Sac / Steal (most conservative)43.3%
No skills at all43.8%
How to read it: using skills when the situation calls for them is clearly stronger, and the most conservative tier actually finishes last — holding back Bat/Sac/Steal only means giving up the value of Mist/Hack/Cmd.
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